First Marblehead

Question: The CEO quit. Is this a case of short now and ask questions later?

It’s not clear if he bribed somebody or had a mistress or who knows what. He gifted 32K of his own money to an employee of a customer. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050928/ceo_resigns.html?.v=4

OTOH, the trailing P/E is about 9. I figure Student Loans are a growth business. Maybe it is cheap now.

I’m tempted to buy, but I don’t see any sort of support levels, so I don’t have a clue where to set my bid.

Answer: I thought about offering 21.25 based on a 1-day chart, but I chickened out and lost the chance to make a quick 20%. Rats.

More info came out. The giftee was a female senior VP at BAC, who was fired for it *an entire month ago*. BAC is a huge customer, maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of revenue for FMD. BAC pulled out of one current deal, but that deal just got delayed 1 month to bring in someone else. BAC has not publicly stated that it is cutting all ties with FMD, so hopefully future business is not affected too much.

FMD announced a 5M share buyback. Usually, buybacks send me running, but I am not opposed when the P/E is below 10 and earnings are increasing. There is also some silly fund manager who bet too much on FMD. These ought to provide support at 21, unless the fund manager gives up, in which case no chart-based support will be meaningful.

My limit buy got filled this morning at 21.60. I thought I saw support at 21.50 on the intraday charts, and this time I placed my bet. Actually, it might be more correct to say there is support at 11:00 AM Eastern.

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La Raza Invaders Pushing US to Third World Depression-Like Status

Question: Our charter is to hire only fresh-outs and train them. Most of these >>people were stuck with 30-50k in student loans by the time they get >>out.

>Which is discrimination in the US. What company is this again? Most of these people were stuck with 30-50k in student loans by the time they get >>out

>And you know this how?

Answer: Call it what you want. I don’t lay off people when they get old or ship their jobs overseas when their salaries get expensive. They work their ass off when they show up and I put in close to double digit % of their salaries in their 401k.

Why don’t you non-believers leave well enough alone? Or do you want to be like the current U.S. leadership and fuck up everything in sight and call it a success. They told me. There is this thing called honesty you all should learn about. It doesn’t matter.

Your words: “Our charter is to hire only fresh-outs and train them. Most of these people were stuck with 30-50k in student loans by the time they get out.”

>>And you know this how? >They told me. There is this thing called honesty you all should learn >about.

Hopefully you didn’t ask. Now, if their debt was only 10k, will you still hire them?

You have never hired anyone.

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Does Outsourcing Piss you off?

Question: OUTSOURCING makes me so pissed off, and illegal immigration as a way of life in complete disregard for the legal citizens of this country who are not millionaires or ripping off large public trust institutions like nearly all our senators, that i have to glue my fingers together with crazy glue to keep from going on a murderous rampage.

Answer: “Remember, a founding assumption in econ is that “everything cannot possibly get done”. The work outsourced frees people up for other things.” Quote from Les Cargill. I would like to know what other things he has in mind. They already poison the food in dumpsters, so one of the “other things” can’t be dumpster diving. Now get back to the world hunger. We have the technology to eradicate it, we have the workforce to do it (a majority of people in the world are underemployed or unemployed).

If the extra money a CEO get due to offshoring would actually be used to pay his formers US workers to develop irrigation system for Niger, you can save a village from starvation. Beside that, his formers workers can get a decent job.

Instead, these money are used to overbid other people on domestic realestate market forcing realestates prices up (artificially) so regular people will have a harder time to buy a house. He is going to use these money to buy forests from public domain, restricting the places available to regular people for recreation. Or he will park these money in bonds, getting the government to owe him interest which is going to be payed from taxes on the children of the people he fired to boost his proffit.

Polarization will always hurt the society because it will transfer limited resources into the exclusive ownership of a few. The countries having big polarization also have disfunctional economies. That is the way it is. Polarization is evil, it hurt everybody for the vanity of few.

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YAHOO: Oh my!

Question: I will say one thing. John is technically correct. However, if all the “new money” coming in to the market STAYS in the market (as is likely until 2010 – when the 1st boomers start to retire), then this “new economy” as it is called will have some merit. Unfortunately, the money has to be withdrawn sometime, and then the “old economy” will reassert itself. What happened in the 1929-1938 period had as much to do with population and its desire to save vs. invest as it will in 10 more years. This “new economy” still follows the old rules, just at a different quantum level. Keep an eye out for a large number of early retirements. That will be your first warning to get out of the market.

Answer: I would point out that putting money from 401K’s into the market isn’t much different from borrowing, you are just taking from the future instead of the present. (If there is extra income, it’s coming from profits on investments.) Even if I were to agree fully that they are not borrowing, in most cases they are investing with money that they are not using to pay on what they have borrowed. They are carrying a good deal of debt on credit cards, car loans, mortgages; with the expectation that the stocks will eventually cover it all. They may not be borrowing to buy stock directly, but they are funneling money, in essence, from other type of borrowing. So, if we were to have a 20’s situation, they are still going to be as much in hock. They will not owe the money for the stocks, but everything else. What’s the difference?

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Online Banking RED HOT!

Question: what does everyone think of FLBK which soared today?? I have NTBK and ATLB do you think that FLBK is still a buy or no? I am sorry I missed out on it! Can I get any opinion dealing with Florida Bank please! Thanks

Answer: I have been using SFNB Internet bank for almost 2 years and I will never go back to a local bank.

Here are the advantages;

- no ATM fees (all fees very low due to extremely low overhead) – 20 automatic bill payments a month – You enter payment information and payments will be made automatically, if not, a check is cut for you and mailed out. You can schedule these reocurring. I have been paying student loans monthly for two years without ever using a stamp or having to interact at all. – real-time direct balance over the web. I can be on vacation, 2000 miles away from my hometown and see my current balance, transfer funds, pay bills, check when charges clear, etc. All I need is a web browser and an Internet connection, nothing is proprietary. – balancing check book, all I do is save receipts until the charge clears and then I throw it away. I hardly ever use actual checks, because I can send e-payments to anyone. I ALWAYS know exactly how much money is in my account(s). – moving – I moved from PA to Alaska and I kept the same bank, no fund tranfers, nothing.

disadvantages;

- The only potential one is that I have to send in deposits. I get direct deposit, so this is only an issue when I get a check written to me. It’s very rare. I already have a local bank, so I usually just cash those checks there, but I have had only the internet bank before and I’ve never had a problem with a lost payment. I even used the internet bank with a company that didn’t have direct deposit. I mailed in every paycheck and still didn’t have problems.

I think the above is a no-brainer. Not sure why anyone would keep a regular bank.

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Getting started

Question: Hi, I really want to buy some stocks but I don’t have a clue what to do or how to get started. Could somebody please help me?

Answer: Buying stocks is the easy part. Just call a broker and they’ll tell you how to send them money. I’ve gotten good service from www.bidwell.com for instance, but there are lots of others.

The more important part is figuring a total financial strategy. The FAQ covers this, but the basic idea is to figure out how much money you need to keep as a reserve in case you lose your job, and how much risk you really want to take on. Do all of the preliminaries such as balancing your checkbook, making a realistic budget, and tallying up all of the assets and liabilities that you already have.

Before buying stock, pay off any credit card debt; that works out to a risk free tax free 14%-18% investment. Other non-real estate loans (e.g. current student loans) should get paid off too, unless they are at really low interest rates.

Then, once you have the leftover money, that money that you could live without if you had to, use it to buy stocks.

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Please HELP me pay for COLLEGE with your DONATIONS !!

Question: Thank you for being interested in helping a recent Jewish immigrant from Russia ! I am a full time student at USC majoring in Computer Science. I also work part time as a computer operator , but this is still not anough to pay for tuition , books, car insurance etc. So, I am asking you to help me ! Am not another alcoholic-drug-user welfare recipient- I work hard for a living and go to school full time.

You ask why I go to a private school? It is easy – for two years in a row I got rejected by the state school system (UCLA, UCI etc) I believe for the reason that I dont belong to a minority groop( I am white).

I will appreciate any support – be that a $5 or even $1 contribution.

Thank you for your attention !

Answer: Sign me up for that free money too.

As long as you’re sending checks send ‘em to

John Kropewnicki University of Colorado Crosman Hall 21 Boulder, CO 80310

I am an american student going to a colorado school. I’ll probably just spend the money on good beer…ie Fat Tire. If you’re a “recent” immigrant from Russia how did you you get residency so fast? U.S. Immigration Service must be moving that paperwork pretty fast these days. There’s certain rules in your immigrant status that will allow you to pay subsidized tuition at California’s state universities. If you don’t meet those rules, you’re going to pay UCSC-type fees. On the other hand, if you’ve been here for some time, you should’ve saved your money when you were at community college. You say you’re not a welfare receipient but you want handouts from us? You do have a job, right? The fact that you’re not a “alcoholic-drug-user welfare recipient” doesn’t mean you pass some clean test of why we should open our wallets to you. If you’re hard working, then I presume you’re good in school so apply for a scholarship.

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Good for your instructor

Question: Good for your instructor. As long as he spends at least 20 hours a week in front of a CLASSROOM FULL of students.

Elementary teachers spend 35 hours a week in front of students, many of whom are disciplinary problems. And make college FREE to anyone maintaining a B or higher average. Why should education K thru 12 be free, and a College degree cost $50K to $200K?

Answer: I agree with all but this last.

Eliminate all sport scholarships and tuition funded intercollegiate sports.

I hate paying property tac money for my universitiy’s new basketball arena (they made the final 4 after all, so they need a new forum), or using my tuition to let a jock go to school for 3 years so he can build up his job skills and drop out bfore graduatin. And policemen spend up to 40 hours with hardened criminals. They are different jobs. To be a professor you have to have a PhD, to be an elementary teacher you only need a BA. My professor is paid to do his job and he does it, just like the elementary teacher. And what is your point? My instructor in on campus doing research, teaching, helping students, etc, all day as well. He usually gets to his office at 8:00 am and doesn’t go home until 6 or 7 PM. And on Tuesdays and Thursdays he teaches until 7:45 PM, so he doesn’t leave until 8:00 PM. I have seen him in his office on weekends and over breaks. He works in the Summer, doing research and supervised me on a research project over the summer, but he didn’tget paid anything extra for it. Professors work hard, too.

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Are We Going To Sit On Our Hands?

Question: Any premise that the “global bank bailout” scam could possibly work was dashed to pieces this morning.

The entirety of the European banking system was routed, with share price losses ranging from 50 to 75 percent – in one day. HSBC, Barclays and RBS were all decimated as the truth has started to leak out and is no longer able to be ignored.

This came following BAC, Citibank, Wells Fargo and others in the US being similarly destroyed on Friday, and now State Street (STT) has said they may have another $9 billion in “hidden” (unrealized and un- admitted) losses.

It is time to quit screwing around. If the politicians will not do it, we must force them by any means possible – and necessary.

The simple reality is that Bernanke and Paulson have between them guaranteed or “bought down” some seven trillion in debt thus far, and its not enough. Proof of this is found in the fact that the banks keep coming back to the well time after time.

I said close to two years ago right here on The Ticker that we were likely facing $2-3 trillion in residential real estate losses – real losses.

It appears I was too conservative and the actual losses in residential real estate alone will be at least double that amount.

We couldn’t afford the original $2-3 trillion.

Why not?

Because it doesn’t end with residential real estate.

The carnage also extends to commercial real estate, car loans, student loans, credit cards and more. In short, it is found in every area of debt, without exception. None of it is safe, and the money is simply not there, nor can it be conjured, to “put things right” with some sort of “tarp it over” scheme.

This must be stopped, and stopped now. To the extent we are able, we must recall the money that has been committed. We must eject from policy roles all who had a hand in this so-called “rescue attempt”, and for those who threaten to continue it, they must face indictment for fraud – which is exactly what their policies, at this point, are.

We now know these approaches will not and cannot work. The math said they couldn’t work at the outset, but now we can add proof that comes with time and experience – the actual experience now matches the projections, and it all sucks.

It is time for President Obama (as of tomorrow) to take the stand and say in a loud, clear voice – NO MORE.

If you’re broke, you’re broke. Its unfortunate but true. The bankruptcy provisions must be rolled back so that consumers, as well as businesses, can avail themselves of liquidation. It is what this nation – and indeed all nations – need.

As for the markets, Obama’s “pretty candy from the rear end” rally may not come – and certainly, it may not last. If this is yet another attempt by the banks to twist his arm by manufacturing an “imminent crisis” that demands that he throw money at the problem, one can only hope that either he, or China, will simply say “uh uh” and halt the charade.

The fact of the matter is that we have been systematically looted so that a handful of people can steal their last bonus check to the tune of $70 billion, another $200 billion has been blown into a black hole of fraudulent accounting under the pretense that these securities “will come back” and all of it is gone. We have “promised” that which we cannot deliver, and the check is on the table.

Mellon had it right, and it is time for people to rally to this cry – “Liquidate, liquidate, liquidate. Liquidate it all.”

There is a bottom folks. In the stock market, in real estate, in commercial space. It’s just a hell of a lot further down than people want to admit, but until we do admit it, we will do further damage and dig the hole deeper.

The time to stop was in the spring of 2007 when I first called “BS” on WaMu’s earnings report; the cops should have descended on them and other similarly-situated banks and shut ‘em down. They refused, and we refused to force the issue.

Now we have proof through time that the approach taken was wrong – and I, along with the few other voices in the wilderness demanding that open, honest accounting along with bankruptcy were the only and proper course – were right.

When in a hole the first rule is to STOP DIGGING.

Answer: Way, way, back, when i was in my late 20’s and the civil war was raging (only partly j/k, sue away) i loaned cash to a brother in law doing poorly in the real estate biz. Took a 2nd charge over some disputed land which i figured to make my loan safe/less at risk.

Short story, i lost 75K and the friendship of a b-i-l on an initial loan that only showed $44K. The lawyers made out like bastards they are, legal fees piled up as default notices only ended up delayed and actually made matters worse.

I found you can’t borrow out of debt, nor can you assist the helpless. The easy way is to pull the plug and walk from failure, if not outright run!!!! The bullshit ads on TV demonizing bankruptcy are just bullshit, bankruptcy is not just a relief from creditors to be used by the wealthy. There’s a reason all these fund managers and the missing billions are funded and run in Florida which has always been a debtors haven.

I see the following. Bad and irrespons lending will now proceed to bankrupt munis, states, and eventually the federal gov’t and international banking systems. No one saw it go this far, nor do they see the unintended consequences of bailouts stacked high and lowered credit ratings.

Be careful, quick fix nation is about to lower all our retirements funds and cast a horrible cloud over the future. Also, never listen to me, i am an idiot, i know nothing. I have made and lost millions and see all the lessons i learned and payed so dearly for now being discounted and laughed off.

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toldja so

Question: fat, selfish, arrogant Americans react to losing almost everything. I think they will elect a Hitler type and try to solve all of their troubles by blaming the wurld and attempting to conquer it.

Answer: we don’t hitlarian leaders to conquer the world streaming Brittney Spears videos on broadband is sufficient I think you undesrstand the big picture like many of us

I suspect the same thing will happen. I see bankruptcies begining to start now and lots of people who owe 30k in student loans to get a skilled job in even medical fields and their begging for a good job with straight A transcripts… Stox, the doomers are insulating and putting up sheetrock. They’re canning and cutting wood, getting ready for a hard winter using their homespun skills.

The doom ‘n gloom lists have carried reports of butchering livestock; beef and pork going into the freezers.

The goal is to reduce expenses this winter.

I agree with you and piddie, the price of oil and basic commodities are up. Jobs are in short supply. Tech jobs are going to India. Manufacturing to China. Add in the cost of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Critical thinking about the economy. Tech ain’t coming back. My Pentium II-400 ($99 last year at the used computer store) is plenty fast. China has juiced the old IBM Cyrix CPU to over 1,000 mHz.

The last cell fone was sold last month, now they’re just doing trade-ins; it’s not a growth industry.

Empty stands at the Olympics? Fear of terrorists or no one has the spare cash for a luxury vacation? Seems odd that folk can go to Sidney but not Athens. I’m guessing that it’s the economy.

Going forward from here, each month, the cost of energy will grind away at the sheeple. Ditto those who rent. Month by month, their expenses increase. Food is up too. Insurance, medicine, on and on.

The doom solution was to spend the last 4-5 years cutting living expenses. Fixing, repairing, building skillsets and saving money.

This doesn’t mean that the economy will collapse in an end-of-the world scenario. It does mean that mid-range doom predictions from 1998 and 1999 were spot on.

2nd running of the U.S. Great Depression; Japan-like longer than a decade economic doldrums; pre WWII Germany hyper inflation; take your pick.

You can ride these out. With a little luck and a lot of hard work, the doom-lists hope to prosper.

I’m told this story before. I worked with a fellow whose grandfather hit the 1st Great Depression with fifty thousand dollars in cash.

That fellow’s family remembers the 1930’s and 1940’s as the good years. They lived in the big house on the hill. Essentially they owned a small town. Had servants. Owned and managed the major businesses.

Granted, fifty grand was a lot of money in 1929 but it wasn’t THAT much. About what a million or two was like in 1999?

The question on the table on the doom and gloom lists is, what’s next?

Some guesses are that the Greenspan will raise interest rates and will CAUSE inflation in the near term by increasing the cost of doing business. As costs increase, goods and services will become more expensive.

Fuel costs will also drive up prices. This will reduce economic activity in discretionary areas, resorts, travel, hotels, airlines.

Home improvement, especially insulation, are growth industries. I’ve been working on my place evenings and weekends. Sheetrock, plywood, electrical, plumbing, insulation. Getting things fixed up.

If you put a twenty a week into a coffee can starting in 2000, you’d have over $4,000. That’s not retirement money. Taht’s “walking around money”. $4,000 in cash gives you options, a stake.

A mainframe programer might get a $400 used laptop, freeware CDs with Linux, Hercules/390, MVS 3.8, and bid on support or development work. That same machine could run Cloudscape (the opensource Java SQL database), MySQL, any of several free C++ compilers.

Plumbing and jackleg carpentry? A full kit of power tools is less than $2,000. Plumbing? A hacksaw and file for plastic, a $4.99 tubing cutter and a $9.99 propane torch for copper.

If you have your health and determination, there is nothing that you cannot do.

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