ADOBE

Question: Recently insiders at ADOBE sold about 1.4 million shares of stock. Look out below. Adobe isn’t a bargain. It has no support levels between 54 and about 35. Insiders in the company sold off 1.4 million shares in the last six months. If its so good to own why are 6 insiders running the other way ?

Answer: I don’t much much about stock; I’m here to learn :) But I do know a bit about software, so here’s my two cents worth.

Adobe’s main competitor is Quark Express. And Quark is a great product, up to a point. Every user I know gripes about Quark’s lack of support and Quark’s Antoinette attitude. I think that version 7.0 will really give Quark a run for it’s money. And there’s Framemaker. Quark is also really optimized for short documents; there’s a real opening for a layout program designed to do books. And don’t forget Illustrator and Photoshop. Photoshop just keeps improving; it really is the killer app for digital imaging, with almost no competition. It’s powerful, and it keeps getting easier to loose. Also, Adobe is truly preparing for a future that includes both paper and on-line publication of various sorts. They are thinking and researching the way users work.

This may seem silly, but I’ve met a number of the supprt and engineering staff at Adobe; it really is an incredibly tight, surprisingly small company. And the employees raved about management. Programmers just don’t do that, as a rule.

I’d like to buy Adobe; now if I can just pay off my student loans and find a broker… No, I don’t use chat rooms for trading. From what I understand, some are better than others, kind of like neighborhoods ;-)

Most day traders don’t know much about the stocks they are trading in, but I do my research VERY carefully, and don’t trade companies I know nothing about, and whose valuation is out of wack (like the Internet companies…yeah, a lot of people have made a LOT of money, but it’s still bullshit).

That way my short trades aren’t bad medium/long trades, and I am currently in two long trades that stemmed from bad (slow) exit strategy, that I have no fear of being long on. I keep half my portfolio medium and the other half cash, for ‘day’ trading.

I still have the typical sellers remorse…where I day trade a stock and made plenty on it, and it went up significantly (SILK is my most recent….I bought it at $23, set it to automatically sell it at $27 because I was away that afternoon…and it went up way into the 40’s! At 1000 shares, that’s a LOT of dough I lost by being on autopilot…BUT I did make plenty….).

I also have “didn’t sell” remorse….like DELL…and one big problem I have is trade execution….I just can’t get my trades to execute fast enough…even though the stock is at my sell price, my trades don’t end up selling. I am researching how to minimize that…and most good day traders, from what I understand, sell at the bid price, just because they know it will execute FASTer, but in a few cases, I didn’t do that, and took a hit.

I look for cyclic stocks…like DELL…chart it out since the split, and you will see what I mean…. I spend hours a day (and night) just looking for stocks to analyze….that’s most of the work, finding good stocks.

A company like MYLX has been really undervalued for SO long, and there is a hint of some upward movement soon, but I feel ’stuck’ in it….I know it’s going to go up, but sometimes I loose my patience, and want to just take my %20 and move on. MYLX is one of my long term stocks, that I bought perfectly at the bottom, and I feel it’s a REAL good one.

It’s a blessing and a curse that I know what the companies do, cause I know if the ‘technology’ is bullshit (eBay), and I end up not investing in companies that end up in these ‘emotional’ roller coasters, that have bee doing so well over the past 6 months. As I said, that’s both good and bad… I believe in the long run, it’s good…but %5000 would have been nice ;-)

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